The spring catches are down..........

[tyneandrew]

...........and things are looking good

Are you a believer of the five year cycle? Does each years spring run effectively have its own strain returning every five years?

I have been doing some more analysis on all beats currently subscribed to fishdee - why the Dee? - its my favourite river. Maybe not the best but there you go.

Firstly, i am not trying to say i know what i'm talking about here......its merely a theory. Bin it or enjoy it.

The spring catches are down in Scotland and the intitial instinct is to worry, which is fair enough, but if you look at it from the following point of view then it may appear different (for the Dee anyway - and perhaps the other rivers).

Spring (Feb - May) 2002 on the Dee was poor - c1200 fish reported to fishdee. So, do we expect (if we follow the cycle rule) that the 2007 run will also be poor. Logic says it will - other factors aside. And it is down (10% on last year so far).

Lets look at some facts - The Feb & March catch this year is 26% up on the Feb & March catch in 2002. If this spring cycle theory is any where near correct then this cycle of fish is gaining momentum (and this is the weakest cycle of spring fish we currently have).

04', 05' & 06' were 'relatively' good years - the catch in these years for spring is around 2,150 fish.

If this improvement we are seeing in the 02' to 07' cycle is common place through all the cycles then one may expect that the spring catch in 09' 10' & 11' may be in the region of 2,750?

Just a thought


Have a browse through the beats on fishdee and note how poor the catches are in spring 2002

[williegunn]

Andrew, I hope to change your favourite river to the Spey next week.
I have spotted a major flaw in your arguement unless you have already factored in the success of FishDee itself, more anglers and more beats reporting?
You would be better dealing with the Scottish Executive figures.

[tyneandrew]

I'm sure i will like the Spey alot. I often think a favourite river is a bit like your favourite breed of dog - you soon get attached to one and thats it.

Will probably try the S Exec for some data and report back ;D

Malcolm, i took the information from all beats currently reporting - so it is consistent in that respect.

In terms of more anglers, i personally think the affect is neglibable over the past 5 years? If 4 rods fished Wester Elchies rather than 6 do you think the catch for the beat would rise in the same proportion?

[williegunn]

tyneandrew said:

Will probably try the S Exec for some data and report back ;D

Malcolm, i took the information from all beats currently reporting - so it is consistent in that respect.

But were all beats reporting or even on the site in 2002?

tyneandrew said:

In terms of more anglers, i personally think the affect is neglibable over the past 5 years? If 4 rods fished Wester Elchies rather than 6 do you think the catch for the beat would rise in the same proportion?

Were all beats fully let in 2002? or were some days completely unlet?

Do you mean fall rather than rise in your last question?

[toucan]

Andrew,
It is good to have some "glass half-full" posters looking at the future with optimism.

One problem with the five-year theory is the possibility of salmon spending three or four years in the river as parr - which is the norm for the salmon spawning in the very highest reaches of the Dee system. This turns the five-year cycle into a six or seven year cycle, assuming 2SW. You'll have to add another year for those twenty pounders

For an analysis of the Dee stock, you might like to read the following report:
adaa.org.uk/pdfs/Dee%20Salmon%20Stock%20Review%202006.pdf

Things may be moving slowly in the right direction.

Good luck on the Spey!

Mark

[tyneandrew]

Hi Mark,

To be perfectly frank i am usually more of a realist and don't have a great deal of faith in runs of salmon recovering to their former glory. The post and analysis i did just shows how many different ways there are of looking at things - as you say the glass half full approach.

I had a chat to an experienced fisher last night and he also mentioned that the 5 year cycles is not strictly correct, for reasons similar to what you mention. The factors influencing Atlantic salmon populations really is a minefield - so many variables and so hard to quantify them. Who knows what the future holds - all i can say is my fingers are crossed...

Looking forward to some 8 hour days on the river rather than eight hour days doing MSc work in the library - fish or no fish i always enjoy my fishing.

Andrew

[tynetraveller]

Don't forget repeat spawners- I know of a grilse caught and tagged on the Ponoi a few years ago and was caught again two years later weighing high twenties. On some rivers repeat spawners can account for nearly 10% of the run.